Catherine Lim - Buzzberg

Date	Ticker	Direction	Thesis	Source
Feb 16, 2026	BABA /BIDU /JD /CHINA MEDIA & GAMING	SHORT	Regulators summoned major platforms (Alibaba, Baidu, JD, Meituan) on Friday regarding "evolutionary" pricing practices (price wars). Meituan warned of a $3.5B annual loss due to this competition. The government's "anti-involution" drive effectively caps profit margins. If companies cannot compete on price to gain market share, and are simultaneously facing an earnings wall due to weak consumption, their growth models are broken. SHORT/AVOID. The regulatory overhang combined with deteriorating earnings guidance makes the sector uninvestable in the near term. A surprise stimulus package from Beijing or a successful Trump-Xi summit in April could trigger a short squeeze.	Bloomberg Markets Laopu Gold, CATL Added to Hang Seng Index \| T...
Feb 16, 2026	BABA /JD /TCEHY /BIDU	AVOID	Chinese tech firms are pouring over 10 billion in incentives/subsidies into the market for the Lunar New Year. Companies are issuing profit warnings. While this boosts top-line consumption data for the holiday, it is a "cash burn" strategy to defend market share against new entrants. This directly erodes margins and profitability in the near term. AVOID (Margin compression risk outweighs temporary revenue bump). Consumption recovery is stronger/stickier than expected, driving volume that offsets margin pressure.	Bloomberg Markets Japan Posts Anemic Growth as Takaichi Eyes Sp...